Науково-методичний апарат аналізу та управління ризиками, що виникають при розробці, виробництві та закупівлі нових (модернізованих) зразків озброєння та військової техніки: загальна схема та методи дослідження

Abstract

The article emphasizes that the problem of providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with modern models of armaments and military equipment (AME) intended for waging the present and in the near future is on the agenda in the present day. World experience shows that the processes of development, production and batching of troops with the latest and modernized armaments and military equipment are not only time-consuming (from 5 to 15−20 years, depending on the complexity of the AME sample), but also have many obstacles on the way of their successful realization «through» the emergence during this time of numerous negative circumstances and phenomena (challenges, uncertainties, unpredictability, obstacles, dangers, crises, catastrophes, unreliability, uncertainty, etc.), which are both subjective and objective. These negative circumstances and phenomena, which are sometimes diffi cult enough to predict, force armaments and military equipment customers to make a responsible decision, or to refuse to start or continue their planned work, or to take certain risks that may lead to positive or negative results. In order to minimize the negative impact of potential risks, their occurrence should be anticipated (predicted). For this we need, in our opinion, an appropriate scientifi c and methodological apparatus. The proposed article outlines the general scheme, structure and content of a possible scientifi c and methodological apparatus for conducting risk assessment and management research in the development, production and procurement of new (modernized) samples of AME. The essence of the systematic methodology of prediction (forecasting) and risk management, which is proposed to be used as a working tool for research on this issue, as well as in solving practical issues of technical equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with armaments and military equipment is considered.