Methodological approach to the assessment of threats and risks from the production of arms and military techniques due to large-scale destruction of critical infrastructure facilities (defense-industrial complex)

• Igor Chepkov

  Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4294-4152

• Yurij Gusyev

  National University Ostroh Academy

Building a new account of the defense industry during the war and after the end of martial law, restoration of critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine is a priority problem that also requires comprehensive scientific research. Military aggression and terrorist acts lead to significant damage to defense and military facilities, infrastructure, which threatens the military security of the state, its economic development, as well as the life and safety of the population. In the opinion of the authors, during the substantiation of measures for the formation of a promising model of the defense-industrial complex, the issue of the development of a scientific and methodological apparatus for assessing the specified type of threats and managing the corresponding risks requires mandatory research. Taking into account these threats is a key task for the formation of a stable defense industry and ensuring national security, and. risk assessment in such conditions is a critical element of the national security strategy, and requires adaptation to a high degree of uncertainty, operational dynamics, as well as the interdisciplinary nature of threats. In the article, the authors present a developed three-dimensional fuzzy risk assessment model for the example of ammunition production facilities, taking into account three main variables: attack probability; expected losses; vulnerability of the object. The model was implemented in the MATLAB environment, a corresponding Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) was built, and test calculations were carried out for scenarios of high, medium and low vulnerability. Visualization in the form of a three-dimensional surface allows prompt assessment of critical risk zones depending on input factors. The proposed model is adaptive to the Ukrainian security environment. It takes into account the changing geography of hostilities, the lack of complete information, the uneven vulnerability of defense and military facilities, as well as the operational need to prioritize the recovery of resources. Application of such a model allows creating a flexible assessment system integrated with decision-making platforms at the level of communities, military administrations and central authorities. The model of fuzzy risk assessment for munitions production facilities has demonstrated high sensitivity to the input parameters of the threat and allows entering the ranking of facilities by the degree of criticality. Using the model, the integral risk in points (0-100) was calculated for a given threat profile, a risk surface (3D) was generated, which clearly demonstrates the interdependence between key risk parameters.

The scientific value of the model lies in the fact that it takes into account the uncertainty and incompleteness of data, characteristic of military conditions, allows to introduce the ranking of objects by risk, which is the key to making decisions about evacuation, defense or duplication of production, it can be integrated into a decision support system in headquarters, defense ministries, or in the context of strategic planning.

1. Igor Chepkov, Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

   Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Corr. Member NASU Chief of Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of Armed Forces of Ukraine

   Kyiv, Ukraine

2. Yurij Gusyev , National University Ostroh Academy

   PhD in Economics

   Professor of the Department

   Ostroh Academy National University

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Copyright (c) 2026 Ігор Чепков,Юрій Гусєв

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