Formation of possible scenarios for the development of abnormal situations during tests of controlled means of destruction

Authors
Keywords:
Array, Array, Array, Array, Array, Array, Array
Abstract

The article presents a methodological approach to the formation and development of possible scenarios for the development of emergency situations during the testing of guided weapons by describing their structure and functioning based on logical-probabilistic theory. In this case, the structure of the object under study is described by a function of the algebra of logic, and the quantitative assessment of the operational state is described by a probabilistic function, which allowed the application of the basic theorems of probability theory.

Possible scenarios for the development of emergency situations when using guided weapons were considered provided that their occurrence is due to the failure of one or more components or a violation of the connections between them. As an example of the development of an emergency situation, a possible scenario for the transition to unguided flight of an air-to-air guided missile is given.

 

Author Biographies
  1. Valeriy Zubariev, Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

    Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

  2. Andrei Veretnov, Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

    Candidate of Technical Sciences

  3. Mychailo Shishanov, State Enterprise «SKDВ “LUCH”»

    Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

  4. Andrii Liubarets, State Enterprise «SKDВ “LUCH”»

    Candidate of Technical Science

  5. Yevhen Kryzhanivskyi, State Enterprise «SKDВ “LUCH”»

    Candidate of Technical Science

  6. Victor Erko, State Research Aviation Institute

    Candidate of Technical Sciences

  7. Andrii Shatrov, State Research Aviation Institute

    Candidate of Technical Science

References

Kredentcer, B.P., Lanetky, B.N., Lapitsky, S.V., Liubarets, A.A., Odnoralov, I.V., Shatrov, A.N. & Shichanov, M.A. (2018), “Osnovy voenno-technicytskih reshenii. Teoriia i prilogeniia. Vol. 4. Monografia: Sintez sistemy podderganiia ispravnosti sredstv porageniia.” Dmitry Burago Publishing House. K.: 332 p.

Zubarev, V.V., Kovtunenko, A.P. & Raskin, L.G. (2005) “Matematicheskie metody otsenki i prognozirovaniia tehnicheskih porazatelei ekspluatatsionnykh svoistv radioelertronnykh system.” Monografia. Knygkove vydavnytstvo NAU. K.: 184 p.

Sevriugina, N.S., Prohorova, E.V. & Dikevich, A.V. (2012) “Modelirovanie neshtatnyh situatsiy pri otsenke nadegnosti spetstehniki” Zbirnik Harkivskogo nacionalnogo avtodorognogo universitetu, №57. Pp. 90—96.

Mirsky, G.O. (2018) “Osoblyvosti otsinuvannia bezvidmovnosti i bezpeky apparatno-programnyh kompleksiv.” Materialy mignarodnoi konferentsii “Radiotehnicni polia, signaly i systemy.” KPI im. Igoria Sikorsky. Pp. 66—68.

Paul R. Halmos. (1956). The Basic Concepts of Algebraic Logic. The American Mathematical Monthly. Vol. 63. No. 6. Pp. 363—387. https:// doi.org/10.2307/2309396. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.1956.11988821

Ryabinin, I.A. (1997). Logic-probabilistic theory of safety of complex systems. Intern. Conf. on Informatics and Control (ICI&C97). Proc. Vol. 3. Pp. 1069—1075.

T. Parhizkar, J.E. Vinnem, I. B. Utne & A. Mosleh. Supervised Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Complex Systems. P. 1: General Overview. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Vol. 208. April 2021. https:// DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107406

doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020. 107406.

Johnson, C.W. A probabilistic logic for the development of safety-critical, interactive systems. Intern. J. of Man-Machine Studies. Vol. 39. Iss. 2. August 1993. Pp. 333—351. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/imms.1993.1064

Zavgorodnii, V.V. & Zavgorodnya, G.A. (2018). Method of representation of knowledge about the assessment of risk of appearance of technogenic accidents. Bull. of Kremenchuk Mikhaylo Ostrohradskyi Nat. Univ. 4 (111). Pp. 43—48. 10.30929/1995-0519.2018.4.43-48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30929/1995-0519.2018.4.43-48

Ernest J. Henley, Hiromitsu Kumamoto. Reliability engineering and risk assessment. Prentice Hall. Inc., Englewood Cliffs. N.J. 07632. 1981. 528 p.

Luk’anchuk, V., Nicolaev, I., Lanetky, B., Terebuha, I., Vasilev, V. & Fomenko, D. (2021). “Osobennosti gosudarstvenykh ispytanii zenitnogo raketnogo kompleksa srednei dalnosti s ispolzovaniem tehnologii virtualnogo poligona.” Mater. Konf. “Débats scientifiques et orientations prospectives du diveloppement scientifique.” Zb. naukovih pratc ΛΌГOΣ. Pp. 115—120. https://doi.org/10.36074/logos-05.02.2021.v2.35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36074/logos-05.02.2021.v2.35

Julian Salomona, Niklas Winnewissera, Pengfei Weia, Matteo Broggia & Michael Beer. Efficient Reliability Analysis of Complex Systems in Consideration of Imprecision. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. August 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972

Yerko, V., Kryzhanivskyi, Y., Liubarets, A. & Shatrov, A. Methodical bases of processing the results of research on guided and unguided missiles solid fuel engines. Intern. Scient. and Pract. Conf. Theory and Practice of Science: Key Aspects. July 19–20, 2023 in Roma, Italy. Pp. 353—361. https://doi.org/10.51582/Interconf.19-20.07.2023.033 DOI: https://doi.org/10.51582/interconf.19-20.07.2023.033

Cover Image
Published
2025-03-31
Section
TESTING, TEST SITES
License

Copyright (c) 2025 Валерій Зубарєв,Андрій Веретнов,Михайло Шишанов,Андрій Любарець,Євген Крижанівський,Віктор Єрко,Андрій Шатров

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Formation of possible scenarios for the development of abnormal situations during tests of controlled means of destruction. (2025). Weapons and Military Equipment, 45(1), 97-103. https://doi.org/10.34169/2414-0651.2025.1(45).97-103

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 > >>