Інтегральна оцінка пріоритетності вибору зразків бронетанкового озброєння та техніки для оснащення Збройних Сил України

Abstract

The article proposes a methodology for the integral assessment of the priority of armored vehicles and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, taking into account their ability to perform assigned tasks during the exploitation stage of the life cycle. Unlike traditional approaches focused mainly on technical specifications, the proposed method integrates both combat performance and sustainment-related factors, thus reflecting the real operational context of Ukraine’s defense forces.

The assessment framework is based on the principles of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with the introduction of dynamic weighting coefficients. This allows the methodology to account for the shifting balance of priorities between 2025 and 2030 – from immediate survivability and logistical availability under conditions of high-intensity attritional warfare, towards production scalability, digital integration, and modernization potential in the medium and long term.

At the core of the evaluation are six key combat-related properties of armored platforms: survivability, lethality, mobility, integrability, adaptability, and autonomy. These are complemented by two sustainment-oriented criteria: logistics and production. Such a set of indicators operationalizes the broader concept of quality as defined in national life cycle management standards, namely the ability of a system to maintain mission effectiveness throughout its life span.

The methodology produces integral scores through weighted aggregation of expert judgments and empirical data, which are then visualized in the form of heat maps, rating tables, and time-series forecasts. These results make it possible to compare a wide spectrum of both domestic and foreign platforms currently in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and to identify short-term operationally optimal solutions, mid-term modernization priorities, and long-term candidates for replacement or withdrawal.

The findings highlight the relative advantages of technologically flexible platforms, supported by robust logistical frameworks and scalable production, as compared to legacy systems with limited modernization potential. This creates an evidence-based foundation for shaping procurement strategies, planning modernization programs, and optimizing the structure of the armored fleet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine within the 2025-2030 horizon.