Methodological basis for paratymatic assessment of the armaments life cycle cost

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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34169/2414-0651.2021.1(29).3-13
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Abstract

The article considers the methodological features of the application of regression analysis for parametric estimation of cost indicators of weapons using statistical relationships between historical data on costs and characteristics of complex technical systems. The use of life cycle cost calculations should support the process at each stage of the program, through which public customers have the opportunity to make optimal decisions according to the options presented to them. These options may include estimating future costs, comparing alternative solutions, managing existing budgets and assessing cost-cutting opportunities. The life cycle cost calculations are also used to assess the completeness of the data and determine the cost factors associated with key performance indicators of the system or key consumer requirements. The process of parametric cost estimation is analyzed, which consists of determining the main estimation hypotheses, data collection on potential cost drivers, data estimation and normalization, regression analysis, testing and selection of acceptable models. The essence of the concepts of complete, unexplained and explained deviation is illustrated and their mathematical expressions are given in the context of use in the calculations of the coefficient of determination, standard error of estimation, as well as the confi dence interval and the prediction interval. The main limitations and risks of misinterpretation of the obtained results, with misinterpretation of the concepts of statistical dependence and causation have been studied. A sequence of measures for selecting the most acceptable model for its further use in forecasting is proposed.

Author Biographies
  1. Ivan Oliynik, Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

    Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Research Officer

    Lead researcher of the Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of Armed Forces of Ukraine

    Kyiv, Ukraine

  2. Serhii Korobchenko, Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

    Lead researcher of the Central Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of Armed Forces of Ukraine

    Kyiv, Ukraine

  3. Vladyslav Shostak, Military-technical policy department Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

    acting director of Military-technical policy department Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

    Kyiv, Ukraine

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Published
2021-03-26
Issue
Vol. 29 No. 1 (2021): Weapons and military equipment
Section
MILITARY TECHNICAL POLICY
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Copyright (c) 2021 Іван Іванович Олійник, Сергій Олегович Коробченко, Владислав Григорович Шостак

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How to Cite

Methodological basis for paratymatic assessment of the armaments life cycle cost. (2021). Weapons and Military Equipment, 29(1), 3-13. https://doi.org/10.34169/2414-0651.2021.1(29).3-13

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